Monday, November 27, 2017

Repubs all in with Trump

As Alabama heads towards its special Senate election on December 12th, it is being well discussed that the country has big problems with its politics and governance. (See Joe Scarborough's Washington Post op-ed that is copied and pasted at Disastrous American politics.)

There are many ways to put it into words the country's political condition.

It is a messed up national situation with Donald Trump as President.

Donald Trump may not care about anything but himself.

There is disarray, if not crisis, for the Republican and Democratic parties, which are divided within themselves and struggling to define who and what they represent.

The Republicans' situation is particularly complicated by Donald Trump's true beliefs and motivations being unknown and by his unpredictability.

In winning the 2016 election, Trump saw and appealed to deep seated disaffection of a significant segment of the population.

It is unclear, however, the extent to which Trump cynically exploited that disaffection in making a run for the Presidency, and whether he made promises he did not  believe in and only craved the ultimate prize of the Presidency for his self-glorification and narcissism without ultimately caring  about what happened to those who elected him.

In his ten months as President, Trump has done and said a lot of things that have proven to many people that Trump cares only about himself.

Trump continues with a strong base of support that seems unwavering in its belief in Trump and unfazed by anything Trump does or says. That base of support seems nowhere near concluding that Trump conned them. Time will tell on that.

In the meantime, Republicans in Congress are fearful for their future and subservient to Trump. They should have doubts about Trump but they dare not speak any doubt or concern about Trump, out of fear of Trump and of consequences for the Republican party if there are breaks in the ranks about Trump.

No one knows how the story of Trump will play out. It could be Trump will succeed in the course he is on, no matter how damaging to the well being of the country that some are seeing. Alternatively, it may end very badly someway, somehow, for Trump, there may be great damage to the country that becomes clear and that will take years to repair, and  the Republicans may pay a big price for silence and complicity in not standing up against Trump.

Regardless, there is no getting out of the Republicans putting their bets on the table, and the Republicans right now are all in with Trump.

And the roulette wheel spins and spins.

Into what slot will the little ball fall when the current spin of the wheel stops in Alabama on December 12th?

The Republicans are holding their breath.


Keeping score against Rep. Gary Palmer
Rep. Gary Palmer has one of the safest House seats going, so, for him, going all in with Trump does not create a risk for his job personally and is perfectly supportive of his fellow Republicans. The only thing for Rep. Palmer is having to live with his conscience. The score should be kept against Rep. Palmer as a test for his conscience, and also the score against Rep. Palmer may be held out by challengers in other House districts in which there is a Republican incumbent whose conscience can be tested.

A lot is already on the record in this blog against Rep. Palmer. To my knowledge he has not deigned to reply to any of it.[If you interested, I have sent a very large number of tweets to Rep. Palmer, which can found here.]  I will recapitulate such matters after I take on what is front and center at the moment, to wit, taxes.

A. Taxes
Taxes are something that should be on Rep. Palmer's conscience.

Here is what Rep. Palmer's press release says on taxes:
Congressman Palmer Votes to Cut Taxes 
November 16, 2017
Press Release
For Immediate Release
Media Contact: Cate Cullen (202)225-4921
Palmer Votes to Cut TaxesWashington, DC – Today the House of Representatives passed the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act by a vote of 227-205. Congressman Gary Palmer (R-AL) released the following statement after voting in favor of the bill.
“My colleagues and I took a significant step towards providing American families much needed and meaningful tax relief,” said Palmer. “The Tax Cuts and Jobs Act lowers rates for individuals and families and makes much needed changes designed to spur the type of sustained economic growth that will benefit every American. The American people have been waiting over three decades for this kind of reform and I hope that my colleagues in the Senate will move quickly so that we can reconcile differences and make improvements in order to deliver on the promise of tax reform to the American people.”
“One of the primary reasons I ran for Congress was to have the opportunity to help make major reforms that help American families and that help make our nation more secure, more prosperous and on a path to fiscal stability. Throughout this process our focus has been on lowering rates for taxpayers, making sure American corporations can compete in  the world economy, cutting taxes and red tape to promote small business startups and help them grow and making our tax code simpler and predictable to promote more investment. These are the essentials that will lead to vibrant and sustainable economic growth and that will put more money in people’s paychecks.”
“While we are excited about what we are doing with this bill, our tax reform effort is not a ‘one and done’. We will continue to work year-after-year to ensure that our tax code works for the American economy and works for all Americans.”
Plenty has been said about how desperate the Republicans in Congress are for a win on taxes, how their donors are threatening to cut off the Republicans if they can't come through with a fantastic tax cut for the donors, and  that to sell that to the American people it is imperative to promise there will be a huge boost to wages and job creation and increased economic growth will produce revenues offsetting the tax cuts alone.

Politicians are suspect whenever they make promises, and the question is how suspect are the promises of Trump and the Republicans, and who is at risk regarding the promises.

Here are some things to be suspect about Trump and the Republicans (including Rep. Gary Palmer), and their donors.

First think back to the 2008 financial crisis and how the American people were told Wall Street had to be bailed out in order to save the financial system and avoid a financial collapse that would plunge the country into a severe recession if not a depression. Wall Street was bailed out, and it and the other super rich went on to spectacular fortunes during the next decade, whereas much of America was stagnant and left behind.

Next consider the debate and uncertainty about how corporations will spend their tax cuts and whether the funds will go to capital (such as in form of dividends or business expansion that increases earnings available for capital) or to labor (in form of wage boosts and new jobs). There are several factors that bear on this, and economists greatly disagree.

Further consider how the stock market and its gains have already put into the bank expectations about how much "capital" will get from the tax cuts and the revenues from increased economic growth. This amount that is already "in the bank" for capital is to be contrasted with how labor (the rest of us) is left in uncertainty and has to wait to see how much "labor" will ultimately get and how much there are increased revenues for the government that will offset the tax cuts.

Consider how corporate tax cuts might be tied directly to wage growth and job creation (such as tax credits for increased payroll) and give more guarantee of tax cut benefits going to labor, compared to the benefits that are already "in the bank" for capital because of expectations about how much "capital" will get from the Republican ideas about tax cuts.

Consider how Trump has made it clear that he considers himself entitled to profit from the Presidency and how his motivations about the tax plan are to benefit himself and his family and it rings false that his tax plan is not for the rich.

So, for Rep. Gary Palmer's conscience: There is plenty of reason regular Americans should not trust Trump and the Republicans about taxes. Rep. Gary Palmer needs to think it through and decide how clear a conscience he has about what he wants to do with taxes.

In all events, Rep. Gary Palmer should not be able to plead ignorance about what the Republicans are doing with taxes if the tax cuts are enacted and there is increased realization by Americans that Trump and the Republicans were not to be trusted on taxes.

For a lengthier discussion about taxes, please see Deciphering taxes.







B. Culture war
Will Rep. Gary Palmer answer whether he wants to lessen the culture war, or whether he is all in with Donald Trump and wants to stoke the culture war as hot as he can?



C. Health care
There are numerous questions to try to get Rep. Palmer to answer about health care. My bet is he won't answer, but let's get started with whether he thinks  he should expose his views and thinking to critical public scrutiny and questions from his constituents.

D. Fake news
At least one of your followers is keen on the subject of FAKE NEWS, which is a very good topic.
For starters, let's try an essay question for you. Please comment on Donald Trump's attack on FAKE NEWS that has been going on for more than a year, whether that attack has been beneficial or detrimental to the country, and the extent to which you support or oppose that attack  To answer that question, it may be necessary to give a definition of FAKE NEWS.


E. Silence and complicity
[to be completed; too much to set forth right now; possibly the most damning against Congressional Republicans]


F. Comey, Mueller, FBI
Can we stipulate some things, Rep. Palmer?
1. Can we stipulate that the last thing an FBI director wants to cross his desk is a criminal case bearing on national electoral politics, because of the immense pressures and attacks by outside partisan politics and enormous risk to FBI maintaining its independence and reputation for independence under those attacks?
2. Can we stipulate that Trump cares only about Trump, that he does not care about the FBI except to the extent the FBI is in a position to help or hurt Trump, and any opinion Trump expresses about the FBI is determined not by facts, truth and accuracy, but solely by whether the FBI is helping or threatens to hurt Trump (i.e., when FBI does something that helps Trump, FBI is "fantastic" and, if FBI threatens to hurt Trump, FBI is trash and its reputation is "in Tatters")?


[to be continued]
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